LTE Insights Service - LTE in the UK: Deployment Plans, Operator Strategies, Spectrum and Forecasts 2011 - 2015

With over 7 million subscriptions and a penetration level of over 11 %, the UK is one of the leading mobile broadband markets not only in Western Europe but throughout the world. As a result, the UK was one of the first countries to witness HSPA rollouts over UMTS networks, followed by widespread commercialization of USB dongles and mobile broadband subscription packages. In the UK, a similar adoption strategy was anticipated with the introduction of the 3GPP LTE standard, that is widely endorsed as the next generation and most cost efficient standard for mobile broadband, with over 36 commercial deployments worldwide. However, spectrum congestion issues have considerably delayed commercial LTE adoption in the UK, putting the UK behind other major mobile broadband markets such as Germany, the U.S, Sweden, Saudi Arabia and South Korea that have already started offering commercial mobile broadband services over LTE. Nonetheless, due to rising pressure from operators, the Government and consumers alike, spectrum auctions are expected by Q4’2012 and commercial commitments expected by Q1’2013. With a number of LTE trials already operating, most notably O2’s recently launched trial in London; LTE adoption is set to become a reality, in the UK, with subscriptions anticipated to reach 8 million by 2015, representing a CAGR of 198.76 % between 2013 and 2015. This report provides insights to the key factors affecting LTE adoption within the UK, including operator strategies and roadmaps, spectrum and regulatory issues and subscriptions forecasts up to 2015, in addition to providing an overview of the current state of the worldwide LTE market.

1 Introduction 3
1.1 Executive Summary 3
1.2 Acronyms 3
2 Worldwide LTE Industry Outlook 5
2.1 Worldwide LTE Subscription Projections 2011 - 2015 5
2.2 Worldwide LTE Spectrum Adoption 5
2.3 Q3’2011 Worldwide LTE Commercial Deployments and Subscriptions 6
2.4 Worldwide Regional LTE Market Share 7
3 LTE in the UK 8
3.1 UK & Western Europe Subscriptions Projections 2011 – 2015 8
3.2 Regulatory Updates and Spectrum Strategies 10
3.2.1 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz Auction 10
3.2.2 Government Pressure for LTE Deployments. 10
3.2.3 Re-farming Activities 10
3.3 Commercial LTE Trials and Operator Roadmaps 11
3.3.1 O2 UK 11
3.3.1.1 Trial Engagements 11
3.3.1.2 Plans for In-Building Coverage 11
3.3.1.3 Vendor Selection 12
3.3.1.4 User Feedback 12
3.3.1.5 Future Roadmap 12
3.3.2 Clear Mobitel 12
3.3.2.1 Cornwall Trial Engagement 12
3.3.2.2 Video over LTE 13
3.3.2.3 Jersey LTE License 13
3.3.2.4 Future Roadmap 13
3.3.3 Arqiva 13
3.3.3.1 Arqiva Trial 13
3.3.3.2 Vendor Selection 14
3.3.3.3 Support for Wholesale retail LTE Deployments 14
3.3.3.4 Future Roadmap 14
3.3.4 Everything Everywhere 14
3.3.4.1 Cornwall FMC Trial with BT 14
3.3.4.2 Vendor Selection 15
3.3.4.3 User Feedback 15
3.3.4.4 Future Roadmap 15
3.3.5 UK Broadband 15
3.3.5.1 Planned Wholesale LTE Deployment & Vendor Selection 15
3.3.5.2 3.5 GHz Spectrum Ownership 15
3.3.5.3 Future Roadmap 15
3.3.6 Vodafone UK 15
3.3.6.1 Overseas LTE Deployments 15
3.3.6.2 Future Roadmap 16
3.4 LTE Deployment Strategies for the UK MNOs 17
3.4.1.1 800 MHz for Wide scale and Rural Deployments 17
3.4.1.2 2.6 GHz for Supplementary Capacity 17
3.4.1.3 Converged Wholesale and Commercial Network Deployments 17
3.5 Consumer Demand and Pricing Strategies 18
3.5.1.1 Consumer Demand 18
3.5.1.2 Pricing Strategies 18
3.5.1.2.1 Discounts to present HSPA Tariffs 18
3.5.1.2.2 Discounted Pricing in Rural Areas 18
3.5.1.2.3 Mixed LTE/HSPA Bundled Pricing 18
3.5.1.2.4 Free LTE Service Trials 18