The LED Revolution Market Analysis And Insight On Reducing Manufacturing Costs

Chapter 1  Introduction                                                                 1-1

 

Chapter 2    Recent Progress in High Brightness LED

                   Technology and Applications                                         2-1

                  

2.1     LED:  Theory of Operation                                                      2-1

2.2     Intellectual Property Map                                                          2-5

2.3     LED Manufacturing Technologies & Costs                                2-7

2.4     LED Market General Illumination                                             2-13

                  

Chapter 3    Processing Equipment                                                    3-1

                  

3.1     Introduction                                                                             3-1

3.2     MOCVD for SSL – Productivity Challenges and Solutions         3-3

3.3     Low temperature Remote Plasma Chemical Vapor Deposition

          (RPCVD)                                                                                  3-13

          3.3.1  RPCVD Process Advantages                                            3-13

3.4     Defect Inspection and Testing                                                   3-15

3.5     Lithography                                                                              3-19

          3.5.1  Steppers                                                                          3-19

          3.5.2  Nanoimprint                                                                   3-20

          3.5.3  Nanopatterning of LED Wafers                                        3-24

 

Chapter 4    Materials of Construction                                              4-1

                  

4.1     Introduction                                                                             4-1

4.2     GaN-based LED for General Lighting                                        4-7

          4.2.1  Methods to Improve White LED Efficiency                      4-18

          4.2.2  Time-to-Market for LED substrates                                  4-20

4.3     LED Phosphor Manufacturing Issues                                         4-21

          4.3.1  Current LED Phosphor Manufacturing                            4-21

          4.3.2  LED Phosphor Cost                                                         4-23

                  

Chapter 5    Packaging and Assembly Issues for High Brightness

                   LEDs                                                                             5-1

                  

5.1     Packaging for HB LEDs                                                            5-1

          5.1.1  Bonding                                                                          5-5

          5.1.2  Die/Ball Bonding                                                            5-9

          5.1.3  Scribing                                                                          5-12

5.2     Wafer Level Packaging HB LEDs                                              5-15

5.3     Thermal Issues                                                                         5-21

5.4     Test and Inspection                                                                   5-24

                  

Chapter 6    National Programs As Innovation Drivers                      6-1

                  

6.1     DOE Solid-State Lighting Manufacturing Initiative                   6-1

6.2     DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Mission and Goal                6-1

6.3     Major National Research Programs Pertaining to LEDs              6-4

6.4     Challenges Facing SSL Manufacturing                                      6-9

          6.4.1  Inconsistent Color                                                           6-10

          6.4.2  Low Light Output                                                           6-11

          6.4.3  Challenges Facing Market Introduction                            6-12

                  

Chapter 7    OLED Lighting                                                             7-1

                  

7.1     Opportunities for Luminaire Manufacturers                               7-1

7.2     Critical Issues for Continued OLED Market Growth                  7-5

7.3     Manufacturing Options and Equipment Needs                           7-9

7.4     Availability of Critical Materials                                                7-12

7.5     OLED Lighting Costs                                                              7-13

                  

 

 

 

Chapter 8    OLED Manufacturing                                                   8-1

                  

8.1     Deposition Equipment and Processes for OLED Lighting           8-1

8.2     General OLED Manufacturing Cost Considerations                   8-10

8.3     Roll-to-Roll OLEDs                                                                  8-12

8.4     Lithography                                                                              8-22

8.5     Substrates and Encapsulation                                                    8-23

          8.5.1  Substrate and Encapsulation Material Selection               8-24

          8.5.2  Substrate Coatings                                                          8-25

          8.5.3  Transparent Electrodes                                                    8-26

          8.5.4  Encapsulation                                                                 8-28

8.6     Inspection and Quality Control                                                 8-30

                  

Chapter 9    Outlook for the Worldwide OLED Market                    9-1

                  

9.1     Introduction                                                                             9-1

9.2     Passive Matrix Capacity and Demand                                        9-6

9.3     Active Matrix Capacity and Demand                                         9-9

9.4     Cost Challenges for OLED Lighting                                          9-11

                  

Chapter 10  Outlook for the Worldwide High-Brightness LED

                   Market                                                                           10-1

                  

10.1   HB LED Technology                                                                10-1

10.2   HB LED Market Overview and trends                                        10-4

          10.2.1 Market Drivers for SSL                                                    10-7

          10.2.2 LED Backlights for Notebook PCs                                   10-8

          10.2.3 LED Backlights for LCD TVs                                          10-10

          10.2.4 LED Backlights for Other Applications                            10-12

          10.2.5 LED Lighting Market                                                      10-14

          10.2.6 LED Active Outdoor Display Market                               10-16

          10.2.7 LED Signal Market                                                         10-18

          10.2.8 LED Automotive Market                                                 10-20

          10.2.9 LED Mobile Market                                                        10-22

LIST OF TABLES

 

                                                                                                         Page

2.1     Color, Wavelength Material Of LED                                          2-3

2.2     Light Source Comparison                                                          2-17

2.3     Comparison of LED, HB-LED, UHB-LED Characteristics          2-19

3.1     Epitaxy Metrics from Initial Solid-State Lighting

          Manufacturing R&D Roadmap                                                  3-5

3.2     Process Control Metrics                                                            3-16

4.1     Production Method for Various LEDs                                        4-3

4.2     LED Cost Model: Impact of Substrate Choice                            4-14

4.3     Comparison of $/klm for LED Made on Various 2" Substrates   4-15

5.1     Properties Of Die Bonding Processes                                         5-6

7.1     Comparison Of Lighting Technologies                                      7-2

7.2     OLED Displays vs OLED lighting                                             7-3

8.1     Manufacturing Roadmap for Sheet Processing of OLED

          Lighting Panels                                                                        8-16

8.2     Manufacturing Roadmap for Web Processing of OLED

          Lighting Panels                                                                        8-17

8.3     Projected Costs of OLED Lighting Panels (Sheet Processed)

          Stage                                                                                       8-19

8.4     Projected Costs of OLED Lighting Panels (Web Processed)

          Stage                                                                                       8-20

10.1   Forecast Of LED Backlights For Notebook PCs                          10-9

10.2   Forecast Of LED Backlights For LCD TVs                                 10-11

10.3   Forecast Of LED Backlights For Other Application                    10-13

10.4   Forecast Of LED Lighting Market                                             10-15

10.5   Forecast Of LED Active Outdoor Display Market                       10-17

10.6   Forecast Of LED Signal Market                                                 10-19

10.7   Forecast Of LED Automotive Market                                        10-21

10.8   Forecast Of LED Mobile Market                                                10-23

10.9   Revenues of Top LED Vendors                                                 10-26

 

 

LIST OF FIGURES

 

                                                                                                         Page

2.1     Operation of LED                                                                     2-2

2.2     Key Intellectual Property Relationships                                     2-6

2.3     DOE Roadmap                                                                          2-8

2.4     Relative Manufacturing Costs                                                   2-10

2.5     Pareto Analysis Of SSL Manufacturing Costs                            2-12

2.6     Market drivers for LED Biz and Applications                             2-14

2.7     SSL vs. Classical Technologies                                                  2-15

2.8     LED Performance vs. Traditional Light Sources                         2-16

2.9     Energy Production and Use Comparison                                    2-18

2.10   White-LEDs for General Lighting Market estimates in $B to

          2020                                                                                        2-20

2.11   Wafer Needs for General Lighting (2” wafer equivalents, million

          units to 2020)                                                                           2-21

3.1     SSL – LED manufacturing with MOCVD: productivity

          and Cost Analysis                                                                    3-6

3.2     Larger Wafer Size: GaN LEDs                                                   3-7

3.3     Global Shipments Of MOCVD Tools By Vendor                        3-10

3.4     Global Shipments Of MOCVD Tools By Region                        3-11

3.5     Diagram of  RPCVD Reactor                                                   3-13

3.6     Comparison between MOCVD and RPCVD                               3-14

3.7     Nanoimprint Lithography System                                             3-21

3.8     The Phlatlight Chip                                                                  3-25

4.1     Regular LED (white) Front-End Steps                                       4-5

4.2     Current Blocking Layer                                                             4-6

4.3     Regular LED (white) Production Costs for 100k wafers/year       4-12

4.4     HB LED (white) Production Costs for 100k wafers/year             4-13

4.5     Main Manufacturing Steps for GaN-based LED                         4-16

4.6     Regular LED (white) Back-End                                                 4-17

4.7     Methods to Improve White LED Efficiency                               4-19

4.8     Phosphor Coating – Four Approaches                                        4-24

5.1     Hybrid Integration Approach to HD-LED Package                     5-3

5.2     Chain Wire Bond                                                                      5-11

5.3     HB-LED with Silicon Carrier Submount                                    5-17

5.4     Silicon interposer for MEMS / LED Applications                      5-18

5.5     High Brightness LED                                                                5-19

5.6     SMD Package Cost Structure                                                    5-20

5.7     Packaging Changes Result in Optical Improvements                  5-22

5.8     Substrate Solutions for HB/HP LEDs                                         5-23

6.1     DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Strategy                              6-2

6.2     DOE Efficacy Targets                                                               6-3

6.3     Congressional Appropriations                                                    6-6

6.4     SSL R&D Project Funding                                                        6-7

6.5     Price Targets                                                                             6-8

7.1     Status of Technology Towards Lighting Targets                        7-7

7.2     Maximizing Internal Quantum Efficiency                                  7-8

7.3     Manufacturing Options                                                             7-10

7.4     Kodak VIST Deposition Source                                                 7-11

7.5     OLED Lighting Costs – VTE process                                         7-14

7.6     OLED Lighting Costs: Glass Substrate                                      7-15

8.1     Steps of OLED Production                                                        8-3

8.2     Industrial Coater Design Approaches                                         8-4

8.3     Comparison Cluster vs. In-Line – Gen 2                                    8-5

8.4     Comparison Cluster vs. In-Line – Gen 4/5                                 8-6

8.5     Process Flow for OLED stack                                                    8-8

8.6     Comparison of Deposition Sources                                            8-9

8.7     Roll-to-Roll OLED Fabrication                                                  8-15

9.1     Schematic of PMOLED                                                             9-2

9.2     PMOLED Stack/Driving Architecture                                        9-3

9.3     Schematic of AMOLED                                                            9-5

9.4     Passive Matrix OLED Capacity and Demand Forecast                9-8

9.5     Active Matrix OLED Capacity and Demand Forecast                 9-10

10.1   LED Market by Sector                                                              10-24

10.2   Worldwide LED Market Forecast 2009-2015                              10-25